The Deterrence Theory was developed in the 1950s, mainly to address new strategic challenges posed by nuclear weapons from the Cold War nuclear scenario. During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union adopted a survivable nuclear force to present a ‘credible’ deterrent that maintained the ‘uncertainty’ inherent in a strategic balance as understood through the accepted theories of major theorists like Bernard ...Read more >

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is a branch of the Islamic State active in Central and South Asia. This piece provides an overview of ISKP, including the group’s history, ideology, organizational structure, tactics, and targets. It concludes with an assessment that ISKP poses a significant threat within Afghanistan and will likely continue to perpetrate attacks against civilians and the new Taliban government— including against high-profile targets. This threat is ...Read more >

When the Islamic State ofcially declared the formation of its province in Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak)—Wilayat Khorasan, or Islamic State Khorasan (ISK)—in January 2015, many global and regional policymakers dismissed the threat of an Islamic State afliate in the AfPak theater. In the years following its formation, ISK unleashed some of the most devastating attacks in the AfPak region, persisting in the face of U.S. airstrikes, Pakistani military operations, and clashes with the ...Read more >

Ever since the Islamic State in Khorasan Province emerged in Afghanistan in 2015, policymakers and security forces have regarded it as an “imported” group that can be defeated militarily. This approach, however, fails to take into account the longstanding and complex historical and sociological factors that make the group’s ideology appealing to young, urban Afghan men and women. Based on interviews with current and former members of ...Read more >

The Taliban hadn’t run Afghanistan for two weeks before the nation saw its first horrific terror attack. Finger-pointing began immediately after Thursday’s suicide bombing near the Kabul Airport. President Joe Biden, in a speech to the nation, said America would hunt down the perpetrators—members of the extremist group ISIS-K, which has taken root in Afghanistan over the past several years. The Taliban blamed the United States, not for the bombing but for failing to keep things safe ...Read more >

Recent ISKP attacks have attained a new level of notoriety at a time when the group is assumed to be significantly weakened after it was pushed out of its bastions in eastern Afghanistan and with the arrests and or killings of its top leaders. However, ISKP remains capable of executing high profile attacks in the national capital Kabul with alarming lethality and sophistication. This policy memo examines how ISKP may attempt to reestablish itself in a future Afghanistan landscape. It ...Read more >

I have the honour to transmit herewith the eleventh report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which was submitted to the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1988 (2011) in accordance with paragraph (a) of the annex to resolution 2501 (2019). I should be grateful if the present letter and the report could be brought to the attention of the members of the Security Council and issued as a document of ...Read more >

I have the honour to transmit herewith the twenty-sixth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team pursuant to resolutions 1526 (2004) and 2253 (2015), which was submitted to the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 1267 (1999), 1989 (2011) and 2253 (2015) concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, in accordance with paragraph (a) of annex I to resolution 2368 ...Read more >

Since the Islamic State’s Khorasan province (IS-K) emerged in Afghanistan in 2014 it has struggled to expand beyond the handful of Afghanistan-Pakistan border districts in eastern Nangarhar where it first took root. Though IS-K has done a good job of recruiting disaffected low-level Taliban commanders from Nangarhar and a handful of militants from the Pakistan tribal areas, this local support remains just that—local. Though IS-K has appointed shadow governors and is recruiting in about ...Read more >

Nineteen years after the al Qaida attacks of September 11, 2001, American troops are still deployed in Afghanistan, although there is a new enemy that has emerged to destabilize the country—the Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISKP. The Afghan Taliban—the same group that provided sanctuary to al Qaida as it planned the 9/11 attacks—is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United ...Read more >

Since its definitive and traumatic emergence in 2014, culminated with the conquest of large swathes of territory in both Syria and Iraq, the self-proclaimed ‘Islamic State’ (IS) has been able to successfully exploit the socio-political vulnerabilities of many middle-eastern countries, especially capitalizing on security vacuums and disempowered populations while proposing itself as the champion of Sunni Muslims against apostate and corrupted political regimes. In this regard, ...Read more >

At its height, the Islamic State - also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh - held about a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq. By December 2017 it had lost 95 percent of its territory, including its two biggest properties, Mosul, Iraq s second largest city, and the northern Syrian city of Raqqa, its nominal capital. The following is a timeline of the rise, spread and and fall of the Islamic State. The Islamic State – also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh – emerged from the remnants of al ...Read more >

The Deterrence Theory was developed in the 1950s, mainly to address new strategic challenges posed by nuclear weapons from the Cold War nuclear scenario. During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union adopted a survivable nuclear force to present a ‘credible’ deterrent that maintained the ‘uncertainty’ inherent in a strategic balance as understood through the accepted theories of major theorists like Bernard ...Read more >

Algeria and Morocco have long been in competition for diplomatic and military supremacy in the Maghreb and have intermittently faced off in the conflict over Western Sahara. Algeria has been the region’s preeminent military power for decades, despite its influence being hampered by its military dogma of non-interference. Morocco, meanwhile, has placed a significant emphasis on modernizing and expanding its military while showcasing its current military and counterterrorism ...Read more >

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) burst onto the world scene in 2014, advancing rapidly across Iraq and Syria, declaring its “caliphate,” seizing the city of Mosul and routing the Iraqi Army in its path. What followed was a tidal wave of horror, as ISIL “flooded the Internet with images of hundreds of unnamed Iraqis and Kurds being executed by gun and knife and crucifixion, their heads mounted and displayed on pikes.” In that “haunting summer and fall of ...Read more >